Summary: In July 2023, yellow phosphorus prices fluctuated while showing an upward trend and the prices are likely to keep climbing in the near future.
Production costs of yellow phosphorus were at a low level recently and operating rates edged up. Quotations in early July decreased slightly. Nevertheless, in mid-July, the overall negotiation market improved and yellow phosphorus manufacturers raised their quotations; as a result, low-end prices picked up.
Demand—Downstream enterprises and traders had low inventories in the first half of July and some large factories replenished yellow phosphorus, causing market supply to become tight. However, most downstream enterprises still held wait-and-see attitudes and postponed purchasing plans; but some still had procurement needs due to limited inventories and therefore they had to accept the prices, driving up market transactions to some extent and high-end prices were seen. In the second half of July, some large downstream phosphorus trichloride (PCl3) and glyphosate enterprises stocked up on yellow phosphorus in concentration. Thus, more deals were made in the yellow phosphorus market and yellow phosphorus prices went up.
Supply—Operating rates of yellow phosphorus industry rose slightly currently, but some enterprises restoring production still had difficulty delivering the product; most suppliers had orders to be delivered that could last for around a week and market supply was in shortage. Quotations of manufacturers picked up and low-end prices continued to inch up.
Yellow phosphorus enterprises are expected to mainly maintain production to deliver orders in the short term, most downstream enterprises continue to take wait-and-see attitudes, some enterprises still have rigid demand for yellow phosphorus owing to restricted storage capacity, and some transactions are seen in the market; yellow phosphorus prices are estimated to keep showing a tendency to climb. In addition, given that the Chengdu 2021 FISU World University Games is about to be held in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province on 28 July, 2023, attention should be paid to the production and transportation of yellow phosphorus enterprises and downstream enterprises.
Figure Monthly ex-works price of yellow phophorus till July 2023
Source: CCM
More information can be found at CCM Phosphorus Industry China Monthly Report.
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